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2025 in Commercial Real Estate: Stabilization, Innovation, and Sustainable Development

The year 2025 brings new challenges and opportunities to the commercial real estate market. Following the turbulent changes of recent years, the sector is entering a new phase of development, characterized by technological innovation, a commitment to sustainable development (ESG), and adaptation to evolving tenant preferences.

REDD experts—Piotr Smagała, Tomasz Ogrodzki, and Krzysztof Foks—share their insights and forecasts on the future of the commercial real estate (CRE) market. They highlight key trends such as the expansion of modern technologies, the growing importance of data transparency, and sustainability. “We see a clear trend toward creating more flexible, energy-efficient, and environmentally friendly office spaces,” says Piotr Smagała.

Tomasz Ogrodzki emphasizes that “2025 will be the year when data transparency becomes the foundation of the industry’s growth.” The increasing activity of investment funds and the doubling of market analyses confirm that technology and data will be essential in achieving strategic goals.

Krzysztof Foks predicts that “the stabilization of the office and warehouse markets will drive sustainable development and increase interest in modern buildings that meet the highest ESG standards.”

The future of the industry will belong to those who successfully adapt to changing tenant needs, implement flexible solutions, and build competitive advantages based on data and technology.

Piotr Smagała, Co-founder REDD, VP of Business & Development

“Prime locations will remain attractive, but less obvious areas are also gaining ground”

In the coming year, the commercial real estate market will evolve in several interesting directions. Prime locations will remain attractive and continue to sustain high demand among tenants. At the same time, ESG-related changes will play an increasingly significant role. Modern, recently built properties equipped with advanced ventilation systems, energy-efficient lighting, and solutions that enhance energy efficiency will gain a clear advantage over older buildings.

An intriguing trend that may gain momentum is the concept of “15-minute cities.” In practice, this means a growing interest in office spaces located closer to residential areas. If employers actively encourage employees to return to offices, we can expect increased demand for space in less obvious locations that allow for shorter commutes. This could also foster the development of smaller, more boutique-style office buildings.

The need for flexibility is also on the rise. More and more services now operate under the “as-a-service” model, and similar expectations are emerging for office spaces. Tenants want greater freedom in adapting their spaces and lease terms to their evolving needs.

Meanwhile, in the warehouse sector, after a period of dynamic growth, a more cautious approach is becoming evident. Investments are now primarily carried out based on specific client orders, while speculative developments have nearly disappeared. Lease negotiations are taking longer due to tenant uncertainty about the future of their businesses and space requirements. It is increasingly common for companies to opt for developing their own warehouse facilities with the support of general contractors rather than leasing pre-built spaces.

Overall, the market is shifting toward more balanced and conscious development. Investors are becoming increasingly mature players who make decisions based on data and analysis rather than short-term impulses. While growth may not be as dynamic as in recent years, it will be smarter and more balanced, providing a solid foundation for cautious optimism.

Tomasz Ogrodzki, CEO & Founder, REDD

“2025 will be the year of transparency and technological advantages”

I have been observing the commercial real estate market for over 15 years, and I cannot recall a year as groundbreaking as 2024.

For the first time, I see industry leaders openly admitting that competition for information is a thing of the past. The future belongs to companies that make the best use of technology and attract top talent. It is no coincidence that, according to a ULI report from early this year, technological awareness in the industry has doubled year over year. Figures from REDD confirm this shift. In 2024 alone, we recorded twenty thousand logins from professionals, half a million market analyses conducted on our platform, and one million updates integrated into the BI systems of our corporate clients.

Interestingly, investment funds with office and warehouse portfolios have doubled their activity within a year. 2025 will be the first year where data transparency becomes a prerequisite for growth. Forward-thinking leaders understand a simple chain of dependencies—without transparency, there are no digital data, without data, there is no artificial intelligence, and without AI, it will be challenging to attract top talent in the coming years. This perspective is reshaping the way we think about competition in the commercial real estate sector—from a battle for access to information to building advantages through technological advancement and team expertise.

Krzysztof Foks, Head of Research, REDD

“Stabilization and sustainable growth on the horizon” 

In 2025, the commercial real estate market will continue evolving along the trajectories observed in 2024. The office market will further align with ESG requirements and integrate the latest solutions, driving even greater interest in modern buildings. We will likely see a rise in vacancy rates among older, lower-quality properties, particularly those in less attractive locations. This will intensify the already noticeable trend of renovations and repurposing of properties that no longer meet tenants’ expectations.

At the same time, the decreasing number of newly developed projects will limit options for selecting new office spaces, potentially accelerating tenant decision-making and increasing demand for comprehensive market data.

In the warehouse sector, we have witnessed an incredibly rapid pace of development in recent years—over the past six years, existing stock has doubled, and the average nationwide occupancy rate has remained at a very high level. A significant portion of properties was developed on a speculative basis; however, we are now observing a reversal of this trend. High construction costs and a slight cooling of the market are leading to an increase in the share of BTS (built-to-suit) properties in the overall supply. There is also a noticeable rise in the importance of ESG. Implementing appropriate solutions at the design stage can translate into greater interest in a property from both tenants and investors. Additionally, there is growing demand for smaller spaces, last-mile facilities, and urban logistics centers. The proximity to customers and end markets, combined with high-quality space, enables tenants to flexibly adapt their operations to changing needs.

The year 2025 is expected to be a period of relative stability. Rents and operating costs will increase at a moderate pace, while the dominant market trends from previous quarters will persist. Market stabilization, combined with steady growth, will be a positive signal. Long-term predictability will enable better investment planning and strategy optimization, which may contribute to the continued sustainable growth of the commercial real estate (CRE) market in Poland.